Campsite Odds

Do Bigger Campgrounds Book Up Slower? What 2,748 Campgrounds Show

· Sharon Ben-Moshe

Campgrounds with 10 or fewer sites average a 7.57-out-of-10 booking-difficulty score — dramatically harder than every larger size class, which all cluster between 4.58 and 4.95, regardless of whether they have 11 sites or 350. Size matters, but almost entirely at the very small end.

Key takeaways

  • Tiny campgrounds (10 or fewer sites) average 7.57/10 difficulty — the hardest size class by far.
  • Small (11–30), medium (31–75), and large (76–150) campgrounds all average almost the same: 4.93–4.95/10.
  • Even huge campgrounds (150+ sites) only drop slightly further, to 4.58/10.
  • The overall size-to-difficulty correlation is -0.29 — real, but concentrated almost entirely in the tiny-campground effect, not a steady slope.
  • Some 1- and 2-site campgrounds — often fire lookouts or single group sites — score a perfect 10.0/10, essentially impossible to get on demand.

Do bigger campgrounds really book up slower?

Yes, but only up to a point. Below 10 sites, a campground averages 7.57/10 — well into "hard" territory. Above 10 sites, the average barely moves: 4.93 for small campgrounds, 4.93 for medium, 4.95 for large, and 4.58 even for the very largest. The relationship isn't a steady downward slope; it's closer to a cliff at the bottom.

Campground size vs. booking difficulty, by the numbers

  • ≤10 sites (tiny): 7.57/10 avg. difficulty (873 campgrounds)
  • 11–30 sites (small): 4.93/10 avg. difficulty (727 campgrounds)
  • 31–75 sites (medium): 4.93/10 avg. difficulty (740 campgrounds)
  • 76–150 sites (large): 4.95/10 avg. difficulty (323 campgrounds)
  • 150+ sites (huge): 4.58/10 avg. difficulty (85 campgrounds)

Across all 2,748 scored campgrounds with a known site count, the correlation between campsite count and average difficulty score is -0.29 — a real but moderate relationship, consistent with an effect that's concentrated at the small end rather than spread evenly across every size.

The hardest tiny campgrounds in the country

These campgrounds have 2 or fewer sites and average a perfect 10.0 out of 10 — the hardest score possible:

  1. Big Silver Group, Eldorado National Forest, CA — 10.0/10, 1 site
  2. Thompson Peak Lookout Tower, Lolo National Forest, MT — 10.0/10, 1 site
  3. Garver Mtn. Lookout Rental, Kootenai National Forest, MT — 10.0/10, 1 site
  4. Spring Canyon Group Site, Lake Roosevelt National Recreation Area, WA — 10.0/10, 2 sites
  5. Pine Island Group Area, Bighorn National Forest, WY — 10.0/10, 1 site

Several of these are single-unit rentals (fire lookout towers) or single group sites, where "10 sites" isn't a typo — there's genuinely only one thing to reserve.

The easiest large campgrounds in the country

By contrast, these campgrounds each carry 150+ sites and rank among the easiest in the country:

  1. Cape Point Campground, Cape Hatteras National Seashore, NC — 1.0/10, 202 sites
  2. Kiowa Park I, Waurika Lake, OK — 1.4/10, 166 sites
  3. Greenbelt Campground, Greenbelt Park, MD — 1.6/10, 173 sites
  4. Tracy Ridge, Allegheny National Forest, PA — 1.7/10, 200 sites
  5. Elk Creek Campground, Curecanti National Recreation Area, CO — 2.0/10, 153 sites

Why the effect is a cliff, not a slope

Once a campground has enough sites — a few dozen or more — the odds that at least one is open on any given night stabilize, because there's simply more inventory to absorb demand spikes. Scarcity only really bites at the very bottom: a 1- or 2-site campground has no slack at all, so a single popular weekend can push it to fully booked instantly. That's the same dynamic behind why tent-only campgrounds — which tend to be smaller on average — book up faster than larger, mixed RV-and-tent campgrounds.

What this means for your trip

  • If a campground has 10 or fewer sites, treat it like a lottery: book the instant the reservation window opens.
  • A larger campground isn't automatically "easy" — check its actual odds score rather than assuming size guarantees availability.
  • If a small campground is your first choice and it's full, a nearby larger campground is statistically your best bet for an open night.
Methodology: based on Campsite Odds' booking-difficulty scores (1–10 scale, averaged across all scored months) versus each campground's total site count, for 2,748 U.S. campgrounds with sufficient Recreation.gov reservation history from fiscal years 2023–2025, current as of August 2026.

Frequently asked questions

Is a bigger campground always easier to book?

Not necessarily beyond about 10–15 sites — the data shows difficulty flattens out once a campground has enough inventory, rather than continuing to fall as it gets larger.

Why are 1- and 2-site campgrounds scored at all?

They clear Campsite Odds' minimum-data gate (enough reservation history to compute a reliable score) even though they only have one or two sites to book — which is exactly why they score as hard as possible.

Does this explain why group campsites are so hard to book?

It's related. Group sites are often the sole site at a small campground, which is part of why group campsite reservations rank among the hardest on Recreation.gov.

Is campsite count the biggest factor in difficulty?

It's one real factor among several — location, agency, and season all matter too — but a correlation of -0.29 makes it a meaningful, measurable one, concentrated mostly at the smallest campgrounds.